Estimation of Spatial Effects of COVID-19 in Africa: Spatial Panel Data Model (SPDM) Approach

Oyamakin S. Oluwafemi and Yusuf O. Olufemi

Background and Objective: Data containing time-series observations of several spatial units are treated best using spatial panels this is because panel data offers extended modelling possibilities to researchers as compared to the single equation cross-sectional procedures, which was the primary focus of the spatial statistics as contained in the literature for a long time. This study estimated the spatial effect of COVID-19 in Africa by exploring the factors influencing the rate of confirmed cases and examining the spatial spillover effects of COVID-19 within the African continent and interpreting the most efficient and consistent model with direct and indirect spatial effects. Materials and Methods: The study considered the spatial effect of COVID-19 in Africa using the Spatial Panel Data Models (SPDM) approach. The COVID-19 data on 54 countries in Africa with confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 12th May, 2020 were extracted from the COVID-19 dashboard of the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at the John Hopkins University (CSSE, JHU). Results: The study revealed a daily increase in the rate of confirmed cases and that an increase of 0.1527 per 100,000 people is expected in the coming weeks in Africa if the pattern of spread remains constant. Conclusion: Conclusively, we have been able to provide information about the effect of the spread of COVID-19 across the African continent. We also gathered from the results that the rate of death and recovery from COVID-19 in Africa has a significant positive effect on the spread of the virus within the continent.

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